QCAM MONTHLY
The dynamics of markets is a strong reminder to investors: FX also matters! As currency experts, we at QCAM are always close to the markets to analyse risks and opportunities and turn that into successful investment strategies. Contact us – we look forward to showing you new perspectives.
04.04.2024 | Issue #102 | QCAM MONTHLY
«Early and Late Movers» QCAM Insight
The USD continued its recovery in March after a short break in February. We think the USD will on balance remain firm, but we also expect more divergence given the cross current of policy and business cycle dynamics. In particular, we think the ECB will cut interest rates earlier and more than the Fed, hurting the EUR, but we also expect that a broadening global recovery will…
Economy and Interest Rates
Global growth conditions continue to improve gradually with continued US outperformance versus the rest of the world, most notably Europe. The process of disinflation has become less even, with more progress in Europe and setbacks in the US. Soft-landing (moderate growth and lower inflation)…
FX Markets
The USD DXY rose nearly 1% over the last months. The AUD and the CAD held up well with the USD while the SEK and the NOK underperformed the most. EM currencies were on balance slightly weaker with the TRY continuing its rapid decent. Overall,…
FX Analytics
The overall USD position has shifted from neutral to modestly long. On the discretionary Macro side, we went long the USD versus the EUR and we shifted long the CHF versus the EUR…
Early and Late Movers
The USD continued its recovery in March after a short break in February. We think the USD will on balance remain firm, but we also expect more divergence given the cross current of policy and business cycle dynamics. In particular, we think the ECB will cut interest rates earlier and more than the Fed, hurting the EUR, but we also expect that a broadening global recovery will lift commodity prices and risk sentiment, supporting currencies such as the AUD.
Spring awakening
The USD continued to rally in the first half of February but has been gradually sliding lower since then. The competing themes are global recovery versus US exceptionalism and a hawkish Fed. There are many other uncertainties that could shape the direction for FX markets but we expect that data releases over the first half of the year will determine which of the two main dynamics will come to dominate.
What about the US elections?
The USD is recovering as the market pairs back Fed rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, the US election campaign is gearing up with a Biden-Trump rematch looking most likely. The outcome of the election remains uncertain and there are many moving parts that can impact the USD in response. ...
Dynamic Forward Hedging for Corporates
Managing FX exposure confronts corporates with challenges and opportunities. Starting from a general discussion of hedging strategies, this article focuses on QCAM’s Dynamic Forward Hedging approach, which offers corporates a flexible hedging strategy and opportunities to improve their overall financial performance.
Something has to give
Powerful headwinds stalled the USD’s rally in October. Cross currents are likely to keep FX markets range-bound in the near term, but with a USD-bullish bias. The tides are set to change if US economic outperformance fades next year, the global economy starts to re-accelerate and the BoJ finally catches up with reality.
What stops the Dollar?
The USD continued its rally in September and the momentum as well as the support from superior growth and interest rate run-rates point to further USD upside. Rising risk aversion also supports the USD and is unlikely to reverse as abruptly as it did at the end of last year. However, the risk is that the financial tightening becomes....
News & Media
QCAM is a member of the IGUV
QCAM Currency Asset Management AG is a member of the IGUV - Interessengemeinschaft unabhängiger Vermögensverwalter. We are pleased to announce that we, QCAM, joined the Interest Group of Independent Asset Managers (IGUV) as [...]
Early and Late Movers
The USD continued its recovery in March after a short break in February. We think the USD will on balance remain firm, but we also expect more divergence given the cross current of policy and business cycle dynamics. In particular, we think the ECB will cut interest rates earlier and more than the Fed, hurting the EUR, but we also expect that a broadening global recovery will lift commodity prices and risk sentiment, supporting currencies such as the AUD.
Spring awakening
The USD continued to rally in the first half of February but has been gradually sliding lower since then. The competing themes are global recovery versus US exceptionalism and a hawkish Fed. There are many other uncertainties that could shape the direction for FX markets but we expect that data releases over the first half of the year will determine which of the two main dynamics will come to dominate.
What about the US elections?
The USD is recovering as the market pairs back Fed rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, the US election campaign is gearing up with a Biden-Trump rematch looking most likely. The outcome of the election remains uncertain and there are many moving parts that can impact the USD in response. ...