QCAM Monthly May >> Don’t fight risk aversion

QCAM Monthly May 2022 QCAM Insight The USD outperformed across the board in April on rising global growth concerns and risk aversion. The Fed’s lead in the hiking cycle further supported the USD. We think… Economy and Interest Rates The Ukraine war, China’s lockdown, high inflation and rising interest rates weigh on sentiment and slow the global economy. Developed markets, especially Europe, are hit harder than emerging markets. Recession still seems to be… FX Markets The USD rose strongly in April versus all major currencies. Year-to-date, the USD DXY is up a stellar 8%. The JPY is the [...]

2022-05-09T06:22:13+00:00May 5, 2022|

QCAM Monthly March >> Not a systemic crisis

QCAM Monthly March 2022 QCAM Insight Russia’s attack on the Ukraine and the firm response by Western allies are both sea changes with far reaching consequences. The near-term outlook is very uncertain but the crisis is not systemic in our view. We think the war will slow but not derail the global recovery. Central banks will take that into account but... Economy and Interest Rates While Omicron and inflation were weighing on consumer sentiment, business sentiment was holding up well through February and even improving in some parts despite ongoing supply difficulties. While rising social and economic mobility [...]

2022-04-11T09:11:17+00:00March 3, 2022|

QCAM Monthly January >> Emerging Markets FX divergence

QCAM Monthly January 2022 QCAM Insight The performance of EM currencies in 2021 has diverged significantly. The primary driver was central banks’ resolve to fight inflation. Improving global growth conditions should be good for EM FX, but large differences are likely to prevail because of diverging economic fundamentals, political conditions and central bank reactions... Economy and Interest Rates Global economic activity has reaccelerated in the fourth quarter of last year. The Omicron variant is expected to temporarily disrupt but not to derail the recovery path. The decoupling of social and economic mobility from Corona cases [...]

2022-04-11T09:13:50+00:00January 6, 2022|

QCAM Monthly December 2021 >> 2022 Sneak Preview and One Year of FX BIAS

QCAM Monthly December 2021 QCAM Special - One Year of FX BIAS A year-ago QCAM launched the FX BIAS certificate. The performance so far is promising and validates the features of the prior back-tests: solid return, moderate volatility, and no significant cross-correlations. Our goal is to strengthen these features further by adding more currencies and business surveys to the FX BIAS model. QCAM Insight The USD outstripped expectations in 2021. The US economy outperformed amid a bumpy global recovery and the Fed turned hawkish earlier. The two main themes for 2022 will be a smoother [...]

2021-12-09T20:41:34+00:00December 9, 2021|

QCAM Monthly Novemer 2021 >> A chance for volatility

QCAM Monthly November 2021 QCAM Insight Currency performances diverged in October. The USD was broadly stable, but the JPY fell while most other major currencies rallied. The different currency moves reflect the market’s repricing of changing monetary policy positions. The divergence may also lead to more FX volatility... Economy and Interest Rates Global growth concerns (Delta-variant, supply-side bottlenecks, China) are showing up in softer data releases as well as downward growth revisions. In our view, these factors are temporary and unlikely to derail the global recovery. FX Markets The USD was range bound in October, [...]

2021-11-04T15:33:19+00:00November 4, 2021|
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