QCAM Monthly December 2021

QCAM Special – One Year of FX BIAS

A year-ago QCAM launched the FX BIAS certificate. The performance so far is promising and validates the features of the prior back-tests: solid return, moderate volatility, and no significant cross-correlations. Our goal is to strengthen these features further by adding more currencies and business surveys to the FX BIAS model.

QCAM Insight

The USD outstripped expectations in 2021. The US economy outperformed amid a bumpy global recovery and the Fed turned hawkish earlier. The two main themes for 2022 will be a smoother global recovery and Fed interest rate lift-off. We believe the USD has more upside but the pattern may not be smooth and the list of possible risks is long.

Economy and Interest Rates

First figures point to a pick-up in global growth in the fourth quarter, confirming that the Delta-variant and supply bottlenecks have hurt but not derailed the recovery.

FX Markets

The USD rallied in November across the board. Among major currencies the AUD was the worst performer, while the JPY held up well.

FX Analytics

Going into more detail: Based on our proprietary analytical framework to take scalable exchange rate positions we are taking a close look on individual currency pairs