QCAM Monthly September 2022 >> The party is over

QCAM Monthly September 2022 QCAM Insight: "The party is over" Risk aversion has returned over the last two weeks as central banks reinforced their assurance to bring down inflation. The USD rallied in response. The outlook for FX markets depends much on how growth and inflation dynamics will play out in the second half of the year. The USD is likely to strengthen further if the US outperforms in terms of better growth and inflation news. The main risk for the USD is... Economy and Interest Rates Growth forecasts continue to move lower. The recovery momentum from the [...]

2022-09-01T13:48:42+00:00September 1, 2022|

QCAM Monthly August 2022 (Special) >> Who’s afraid of recession?

QCAM Monthly August 2022 (Special) with QCAM Special: Expanding «FX BIAS» QCAM Insight The risk of recession in the major economies has increased yet financial markets are not very intimidated, hoping that central banks will prevent the worst. The USD slipped as interest rates and risk aversion declined. In our view Economy and Interest Rates Growth forecasts continue to slide lower. Recession is not imminent given the recovery momentum from the Corona pandemic but the probability of a recession over the next year is approaching 50%. Consumers respond more negatively to high inflation and... FX Markets The USD [...]

2022-08-08T07:15:43+00:00August 4, 2022|

QCAM Monthly July 2022 >> The Euro’s Italien heel

QCAM Monthly July 2022 QCAM Insight The USD staged a massive rebound in June and early July boosted by a hawkish Fed and global recession fears. The USD is overvalued and the interest rate advantage is declining but. Economy and Interest Rates Growth forecasts continue to slide lower. Recession is not imminent given the recovery momentum from the Corona pandemic but it is a clear and present danger. Consumers respond more negatively to high inflation and... FX Markets The USD surged in June and early July and the USD DXY is now up 10.5% since the start of [...]

2022-07-11T13:59:04+00:00July 11, 2022|

QCAM Monthly June >> Correction or inflection?

QCAM Monthly June 2022 QCAM Insight The USD has dropped 2.5% versus other major currencies in recent weeks after a phenomenal rally through the middle of May. Is this just a correction or a change in trend? Economy and Interest Rates The Ukraine war, China’s lockdown, high inflation and rising interest rates weigh on sentiment and slow the global economy. Developed markets, especially Europe, are hit harder than emerging markets. Recession still seems to be... FX Markets The USD rose at the start of May, but then fell back sharply. Still, the USD DXY is up a stellar [...]

2022-07-11T13:35:16+00:00June 2, 2022|

QCAM Monthly March >> Not a systemic crisis

QCAM Monthly March 2022 QCAM Insight Russia’s attack on the Ukraine and the firm response by Western allies are both sea changes with far reaching consequences. The near-term outlook is very uncertain but the crisis is not systemic in our view. We think the war will slow but not derail the global recovery. Central banks will take that into account but... Economy and Interest Rates While Omicron and inflation were weighing on consumer sentiment, business sentiment was holding up well through February and even improving in some parts despite ongoing supply difficulties. While rising social and economic mobility [...]

2022-04-11T09:11:46+00:00March 3, 2022|

QCAM Monthly January >> Emerging Markets FX divergence

QCAM Monthly January 2022 QCAM Insight The performance of EM currencies in 2021 has diverged significantly. The primary driver was central banks’ resolve to fight inflation. Improving global growth conditions should be good for EM FX, but large differences are likely to prevail because of diverging economic fundamentals, political conditions and central bank reactions... Economy and Interest Rates Global economic activity has reaccelerated in the fourth quarter of last year. The Omicron variant is expected to temporarily disrupt but not to derail the recovery path. The decoupling of social and economic mobility from Corona cases [...]

2022-04-11T09:14:42+00:00January 6, 2022|

QCAM Monthly December 2021 >> 2022 Sneak Preview and One Year of FX BIAS

QCAM Monthly December 2021 QCAM Special - One Year of FX BIAS A year-ago QCAM launched the FX BIAS certificate. The performance so far is promising and validates the features of the prior back-tests: solid return, moderate volatility, and no significant cross-correlations. Our goal is to strengthen these features further by adding more currencies and business surveys to the FX BIAS model. QCAM Insight The USD outstripped expectations in 2021. The US economy outperformed amid a bumpy global recovery and the Fed turned hawkish earlier. The two main themes for 2022 will be a smoother [...]

2021-12-09T20:41:50+00:00December 9, 2021|
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