Uncertainty persists – So far, 2019 has been marked by high levels of uncertainty on FX markets, while volatility has remained low. We think uncertainty is likely to persist, but whether volatility will remain low remains to be seen. Our view.
The macro perspective
Politics is challenging the world’s central banks – Political uncertainties stemming from the trade conflict between the US and China continue to stir up turbulence on financial markets. Economic concerns are also omnipresent though the data does not yet indicate a recession. Will the trade combatants reach an accord anytime soon? Central banks seem to doubt it. Our assessment
FX market talk
US dollar intervention – Speculation that the US might intervene in FX markets to weaken the dollar picked up over the past month. The US Treasury’s decision to label China a “currency manipulator” played into the theme of “currency wars” as part of the armory of a trade war. Our thoughts on that.