QCAM Insight

What to watch for in 2020 – As eventful as 2019 was, it didn’t move currency mar­kets very much. So, what’s in store for 2020? There are a number of potential stories to watch, but will they play out or will central banks stay in control? Our outlook.

The macro perspective

Will China save the global economy in 2020? – 2019 was an unusual year for global trade. Despite solid economic growth, global trade activity shrank – the last time this happened was during the financial crisis. In addition to trade disputes and tariffs, an economic slowdown in China also contributed to a declining world trade. We think things are looking up for China in early 2020, but will that be enough to lift the global economy? Our thoughts.

FX market talk

Exchange rates, short-term shocks and long-term valuations – The 2020s started off with a stress test: a surge in Middle East tensions. Oil and gold outper­formed the US dollar, as did the traditional cur­rency safe havens. The new year offered a stark reminder that short-term shocks often have a big­ger impact on exchange rates than long-term equi­librium models can predict. But there is value of knowing the fundamentals. Our assessment.

Download: FX Monthly January 2020