FX Monthly July 2019 >> Nanika atta with the yen?

  • 12.07.2019
  • FX Monthly

QCAM Insight

Nanika atta with the yen? The yen has been one of the better performing cur­rencies this year. Certainly, Japan’s currency has no particular intrinsic appeal, nor is it a safe haven cur­rency like the Swiss franc. However, uncertainty is toxic for the yen carry trade and we think uncertain­ty may last a bit longer. Our view.

The macro perspective

German economy still struggling. Although China and the US are returning to the nego­tiating table, significant economic and political risks persist. The global economic situation remains fragile. Germany’s economy in particular is faltering. Thanks to German consumers’ continued spending and to the solid growth in the construction industry, no crash is in sight, for now. Our assessment.

FX market talk

Opportunities in emerging market currencies – Over the past month the US dollar slipped a bit from this year’s peaks, but it still remains highly valued against a broad range of currencies. While currency markets typically focus on interest rate expectations and differentials, we think big valuation gaps between currencies reflect many other, large factors. We continue to see opportunities in emerging market FX. Our thoughts on that.

Download: FX Monthly July 2019

Follow-Up results

This is next in your query
FX Monthly November 2019 >> Is it time to sel...

There are some encouraging signs that the global slowdown has bottomed out - financial markets are a...» more

FX Monthly October 2019 >> Emerging markets r...

Emerging markets already lost their luster a few years ago thanks to some country-specific problems ...» more

FX Monthly September 2019 >> Uncertainty tops...

Uncertainty waxed in August and so did USD, despite tighter interest rate spreads. If the Fed were t...» more

FX Monthly August 2019 >> Uncertainty persists

So far, 2019 has been marked by high levels of uncertainty on FX markets, while volatility has remai...» more