FX Monthly September 2019 >> Uncertainty tops interest rates

  • 11.09.2019
  • FX Monthly

QCAM Insight

Uncertainty tops interest rates – Uncertainty waxed in August and so did USD, despite tighter interest rate spreads. If the Fed were to cut interest rates just as uncertainties subside, we think USD looks vulnerable. Our view.

The macro perspective

Swiss economy on shaky grounds – The slowdown in the global economy has not halted at Switzerland’s borders. Swiss companies are lately showing particular caution when investing. The health sector continues to boom. On the one hand, this benefits the sector’s value creation in Switzerland, and on the other, the pharmaceutical sector, whose exports continue their strong momentum. Our assessment.

FX market talk

Sterling’s history has something to tell us – The British pound continues to be buffeted by powerful political and economic forces that have pushed the currency far into undervalued territory. But, we note, there have been times, not even so very long ago, when Sterling was cheaper still – and even more volatile. In 1985 the pound touched its 288-year low of 1.04 against the US dollar, only to bounce back sharply later that year. The story has always been that Sterling eventually returns to fair value. But when? Our outlook.

Download: FX Monthly September 2019

Follow-Up results

This is next in your query
QCAM Monthly June 2021 >> The new theme on the block

The USD declined further in May as vaccination and recovery momentum increased in other economies...» more

QCAM Monthly May 2021 >> Mixed picture with e...

The USD fell back in April as the rise in US interest rates faded. No strong trend has yet emerged a...» more

QCAM Monthly April 2021 >> Ides of March or A...

The USD strengthened in March on the back of improved economic sentiment and rising bond yields. The...» more

QCAM Monthly March 2021>> A “tantrum” for...

News over the last month were on balance growth friendly and lifted risky assets but inflation conce...» more