Shinzo Abe leaves a mixed legacy. He broke the deflationary spiral, but failed to complete Japan’s reflation and made debt-monetization an accepted policy tool. The JPY gradually appreciated in recent years and we believe will slowly strengthen further because the rest of the developed world is becoming more like Japan yet the JPY remains a net-savings and safe-haven currency.
Economy and Interest Rates
Global economic activity continued to recover in August and forecast revisions have broadly changed to the upside. The recovery is now moving from the re-opening rebound to a second more cyclical phase, which is still marked by significant corporate balance sheet and labor market distortions, while the course of the Corona pandemic remains an uncertainty
The USD slide stalled in the first half of August and then regained some momentum after the US Fed inflation target announcement. Risk-sensitive currencies like the GBP gained the most, but even the JPY held up well.
Going into more detail: Based on our proprietary analytical framework to take scalable exchange rate positions we are taking a close look on individual currency pairs.
The USD declined further in May as vaccination and recovery momentum increased in other economies...» more