«Mid-Year Review and Outlook»
We started the year with a positive view on the USD but also highlighted the risks linked to the policy agenda of incoming president Trump. As a result, our macro positions were mostly neutral, which we maintained given the high uncertainty even as the USD fell. The uncertainty is not gone, …
Economy & Interest Rates
There have been no major forecast changes. Global growth is expected to average around 3% with the largest slowdown expected in the US. Business sentiment and consumer confidence remained range-bound in June amid continued uncertainty over US policy …
FX Markets
The USD DXY fell 2.7% over the last month and is down nearly 11% YTD with the largest losses versus the EUR, the CHF and the SEK. EM currencies were on balance also stronger but the RUB and the TRY fell again. Speculative positions remained largely unchanged …
FX Analytics
Most changes since the last Monthly were in Macro positions. In addition to long JPY, the Macro positions also shifted to long EUR, CHF and SEK versus the USD. In Business Sentiment, the long JPY position shifted to neutral and the long CHF position versus the USD declined, …
