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02.11.2023 | Issue #97
The dynamics of markets is a strong reminder to investors: FX also matters! As currency experts, we at QCAM are always close to the markets to analyse risks and opportunities and turn that into successful investment strategies.
«Something has to give»
Powerful headwinds stalled the USD’s rally in October. Cross currents are likely to keep FX markets range-bound in the near term, but with a USD-bullish bias. The tides are set to change if US economic outperformance fades next year, the global economy starts to re-accelerate and the BoJ finally catches up with reality.
Economy and Interest Rates
Global growth conditions remain sluggish with an increased dispersion between US outperformance versus the rest of the world, most notably Europe. The process of disinflation continues with the latest data showing more progress in the Euro-area while the …
FX Markets
The USD rally slowed in October with the DXY up just 0.5%. Best performer was the CHF while commodity currencies underperformed. EM currencies held up well on balance with the RUB up notably while the TRY fell again. Overall, …
FX Analytics
There have been several signal changes since the last QCAM MONTHLY increasing the overall long USD position. All discretionary Macro positions remained unchanged, but …
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Something has to give
Powerful headwinds stalled the USD’s rally in October. Cross currents are likely to keep FX markets range-bound in the near term, but with a USD-bullish bias. The tides are set to change if US economic outperformance fades next year, the global economy starts to re-accelerate and the BoJ finally catches up with reality.
What stops the Dollar?
The USD continued its rally in September and the momentum as well as the support from superior growth and interest rate run-rates point to further USD upside. Rising risk aversion also supports the USD and is unlikely to reverse as abruptly as it did at the end of last year. However, the risk is that the financial tightening becomes....
High-Speed Rollercoaster
QCAM Monthly August 2023: FX markets started the second half of the year with the same rollercoaster pattern as they finished the first half, only faster. The USD DXY fell 3% in the first half of July and then recovered most losses by the end of the month.
Half time
QCAM Monthly July 2023: After the strong trends in 2021 and 2022, FX markets were less directional and more dispersed in the first half of 2023. This pattern may well continue in the second half of this year although the underlying drivers are likely to shift. In our view, the dominant theme will...