«Catch 22 Again»
The war in the Gulf has become entrenched and oil and gas shortages will last longer even if hostilities end soon. So far, a financial crisis has been avoided but the fallout is starting to be felt in terms of rising inflation and falling growth prospects. …
Economy & Interest Rates
So far, there is little material impact from the Gulf war. Business and consumer sentiment have declined, but not dramatically. Still, as the conflict drags on longer with no imminent end in sight, we have lowered our growth forecasts and raised our inflation forecasts. …
FX Markets
The USD DXY gained 0.4% over the last four weeks and is up 1.9% since the start of the Gulf war. The SEK and the CHF lost the most, while the GBP and the JPY held up best. EM FX performance was also negative with the CNH holding up best also compared to major currencies. Speculative positions …
FX Analytics
There have been few position changes over the last four weeks. We kept the Macro positions at neutral given the uncertainties related to the Iran war. In Business Sentiment, the CHF position went short versus the USD. The overall Business Sentiment position is roughly neutral USD. In Technical, …
