«Warsh time»
The USD continued to rally following the US-Iran truce deal and falling oil prices. The AI boom, solid US economic data and a hawkish Fed were stronger than the general improvement in risk appetite. However, we think this is not a good time to go long the USD. The USD has become massively …
Economy & Interest Rates
The MoU between the US and Iran has reduced economic downside risks significantly. Business confidence has held up, consumer confidence starts to stabilize and there are even some small positive growth revisions. However, the negative impact of …
FX Markets
The USD DXY gained 2% over the last month with all major currencies falling versus the USD, especially commodity currencies. The performance of EM currencies was on balance negative as well but more mixed with oil exporters down sharply and oil importers like the INR gaining ground. Speculative positions have turned …
FX Analytics
There have been few position changes over the last four weeks. We kept the Macro positions at neutral given the growing risk of a USD correction (see Insight, page 1). The JPY Macro carry model turned long JPY. No positions changed in Business Sentiment. The overall Business Sentiment position is now …
