«No 1990s Déjà-vu»
The economic and FX impact of the US mid-term elections is smaller than the political implications, but still significant. Not many changes will be immediate, but the relief is huge and the expected moderation in foreign, trade, regulatory, fiscal and monetary policies argue for a softer USD outlook until year end. Basic fundamentals are likely to take over after a while, but …
Economy & Interest Rates
Global economic conditions remain resilient despite ongoing oil supply shortages and rising interest rates. Business sentiment stabilized in October after several months of improvements while consumer confidence stagnates at lower levels. The US remains the global growth engine, …
FX Markets
The USD DXY rallied 2.7% over the last month with all major currencies losing versus the USD except for the JPY. The performance of EM currencies was mixed with the CNH stable, gains in the BRL and the RUB and losses in the TRY and the INR. Speculative positions are modestly long USD, …
FX Analytics
There have been several position changes over the last four weeks. We changed the discretionary Macro positions to long EUR, GBP and CAD (see Insight, page 1). In Business Sentiment, there have no directional changes but the short USD positions increased and …
