«Hold on!»
The USD received a boost in early October after narrow range trading in September. However, the reason was not a fundamental improvement in the USD outlook but market expectation that Japan will return to Abenomics after Takaichi’s surprise win in the LDP leadership election and the resignation of French PM Lecornu. In our view,…
Economy & Interest Rates
Global growth prospects continued to improve gradually with several country forecasts including the US revised up over the last month, while business sentiment and consumer confidence remained range-bound in September. Actual and expected…
FX Markets
The USD moved sideways in September and rose abruptly in early October led by the plunge of the JPY and the slide of the EUR. EM currencies also weakened lately but with significant outliers such as the BRL. The speculative oversold USD positions remained elevated, notably versus the EUR and the JPY. Short-term interest rates for USD and GBP moved…
FX Analytics
We kept all discretionary Macro positions unchanged with EUR, JPY, CHF and SEK long versus the USD. In Business Sentiment, the long EUR position declined, the GBP position moved from neutral to long and the CAD position shifted from short to a small long. The balance of all Business Sentiment positions is 50% short USD. In Technical,…
