«Temporary Shock or Game Changer?»
The US/Israeli attack on Iran, although not a complete surprise, created negative repercussions in financial markets. So far, this has not turned into a financial crisis, but the outlook for the path of war and the economic and financial fallout remains highly uncertain. On the other hand, …
Economy & Interest Rates
Global business sentiment and to a lesser extent global consumer confidence improved prior to the outbreak of the Iran war. As a result, we have not yet fundamentally changed our economic outlook in response to the Iran war but would expect …
FX Markets
The USD DXY rebounded 1.7% over the last month but not uniformly. The SEK and the GBP lost the most, while the AUD managed a small gain. EM FX performance was also negative, but more even with only the CNH standing out as a winner. Speculative positions were significantly net short USD …
FX Analytics
We shifted all short USD Macro positions to neutral given the uncertainties related to the Iran war. All Business Sentiment positions were unchanged with the balance slightly short USD. In Technical, JPY went from short versus the USD to neutral and SEK moved from neutral to long versus the EUR. On balance, …
