«Fallout from the Bond Selloff»
The USD seemingly benefitted from the selloff in global government bond markets, but not uniformly. Fed repricing has peaked and a debt crisis in Europe is not imminent. Thus, we remain neutral on EURUSD but see upside potential for the JPY as the BoJ continues its normalization policy and go long the CHF as a hedge against…
Economy & Interest Rates
Global economic conditions continue to improve despite ongoing oil supply shortages and rising interest rates. Revised business sentiment figures have improved significantly over the last few months and consumers have also regained some confidence but less so. …
FX Markets
The USD DXY rallied 2.7% over the last month with all major currencies losing versus the USD except for the JPY. The performance of EM currencies was mixed with the CNH stable, gains in the BRL and the RUB and losses in the TRY and the INR. Speculative positions are modestly…
FX Analytics
There have been several position changes over the last five weeks. We changed the discretionary Macro positions to long JPY and CHF (see Insight, page 1). The JPY Macro carry model position also shifted to long JPY. In Business Sentiment, only the CHF…
