«First knock-on effects»
The last four weeks have delivered more uncertainty and volatility as expected and yet there were still a lot of surprises. Particularly surprising is the retreat of the USD amid rising risk aversion. Is this the end of US exceptionalism and USD supremacy? Perhaps, but …
Economy & Interest Rates
Global business and consumer sentiment are diverging as businesses outside the US feel some improvements while uncertainty scares consumers. Policy and geopolitical uncertainties following the inauguration of US President Trump continue to rise. Overall, we expect…
FX Markets
The USD declined significantly over the last four weeks with the biggest gains for the SEK and the JPY, while AUD, CAD and NZD lagged behind. EM currencies were on balance stronger as well but …
FX Analytics
The discretionary Macro positions remained all unchanged (neutral except for long JPY). The Macro oil price model went long CAD. Business Sentiment moved to …