QCAM Special
Liquidity deserves a new look given the recent rise in interest rates. In the short-term, holding liquidity is a safe and attractive hedge against prevailing uncertainties, especially the risk of a hard landing. Longer-term, we believe that cash will again produce positive real returns as central banks will be leaning more against inflation.
QCAM Insight
The banking turmoil in March has failed to trigger a flight-to-quality rally in the USD. This has several reasons, notably the swift policy response that calmed markets and a significant down-shift in Fed terminal rate pricing. In our view,…
Economy and Interest Rates
The balance of the data for the first quarter was stronger leading to further positive growth revisions. Business sentiment is starting to improve and consumer confidence continues to recover. The banking turmoil in March has been contained but…
FX Markets
The USD fell back in March after the rebound in February. The EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF performed best. EM currencies also recovered versus the USD with the notable exceptions of the RUB and the TKY. The overall speculative USD position was around neutral but…
FX Analytics
There have been several signal changes since the last Monthly which increased on balance the overall short USD position. The discretionary Macro position shifted from short CHF vs. the EUR to…