«Not yet ready for long USD»
The situation in the Gulf continues to oscillate between de-escalation hopes and renewed tensions but risk sentiment has visibly improved. The optimism hinges not only on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened soon but also reflects positive sentiment linked to the AI boom. Currency markets are not immune to these developments but …
Economy & Interest Rates
The material impact from the Gulf war remains most visible in the Middle East and some emerging economies, notable in Asia. Global business sentiment continues to hold up well, while consumer confidence deteriorated significantly. With the conflict dragging on and no imminent end in sight …
FX Markets
The USD DXY gained 1.1% over the last months with all major currencies falling versus the USD led by the JPY. The performance of EM currencies was more mixed with the RUB staging a strong rebound and the CNH gaining ground as well, while the BRL and the TRY fell behind. Speculative positions …
FX Analytics
There have been few position changes over the last five weeks. We kept the Macro positions at neutral given the uncertainties related to the Gulf war. In Business Sentiment, only the USDCHF position changed from short CHF to neutral. The overall Business Sentiment position is …
