02.11.2023 | Issue #97 | QCAM MONTHLY
«Something has to give»
Powerful headwinds stalled the USD’s rally in October. Cross currents are likely to keep FX markets range-bound in the near term, but with a USD-bullish bias. The tides are set to change if US economic outperformance fades next year, the global economy starts to re-accelerate and the BoJ finally catches up with reality.
Economy and Interest Rates
Global growth conditions remain sluggish with an increased dispersion between US outperformance versus the rest of the world, most notably Europe. The process of disinflation continues with the latest data showing more progress in the Euro-area while the …
FX Markets
The USD rally slowed in October with the DXY up just 0.5%. Best performer was the CHF while commodity currencies underperformed. EM currencies held up well on balance with the RUB up notably while the TRY fell again. Overall, …
FX Analytics
There have been several signal changes since the last QCAM MONTHLY increasing the overall long USD position. All discretionary Macro positions remained unchanged, but …