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The deployment of Corona vaccines is widely expected to reflate the global economy in 2021. The big risk is that the vaccination campaign disappoints.

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The outcome of the US election was again a surprise as the “Blue Wave” was not as strong as expected. Still, markets have responded favorably, hoping that a more centrist government may emerge. The USD has weakened in response.

The USD rebounded in September as risk aversion increased and Corona cases in Europe surged. Uncertainty is likely to dominate at least until the US election. Yet, the fundamental case for more USD weakness remains in place.