QCAM Monthly October 2020 – Correction yet no trend change

  • 12.10.2020
  • FX Monthly

QCAM Insight

The USD rebounded in September as risk aversion increased and Corona cases in Europe surged. Uncertainty is likely to dominate at least until the US election. Yet, the fundamental case for more USD weakness remains in place.

Economy and Interest Rates

Global economic activity recovered strongly in the third quarter. Most growth forecast were again revised to the upside but momentum is now fading as the recovery is moving from the re-opening rebound to a second more cyclical phase, which is still marked by significant corporate balance sheet and labor market distortions, while the course of the Corona pandemic remains an uncertainty.

FX Markets

The USD rebound in September was broad-based. Risk-sensitive currencies like the GBP fell the most, but the JPY held up well. Higher risk aversion was negative for Emerging Markets with vulnerable currencies like the TRY falling the most.

FX Analytics

Going into more detail: Based on our proprietary analytical framework to take scalable exchange rate positions we are taking a close look on individual currency pairs.

Download: QCAM MONTHLY October 2020

Follow-Up results

This is next in your query
Reflation and its risks

The deployment of Corona vaccines is widely expected to reflate the global economy in 2021. The big ...» mehr

QCAM Monthly December 2020 >> Taking a first...

QCAM Special The business cycle is an important exchange rate driver. At QCAM we have been using bu...» mehr

QCAM FX BIAS - unsere Innovation mit Alleinst...

QCAM FX BIAS - unsere Innovation mit Alleinstellungsmerkmal. Dank Geschäftsklimaumfragen Währungst...» mehr

QCAM Monthly November 2020 >> What to make of it?

The outcome of the US election was again a surprise as the “Blue Wave” was not as strong as expe...» mehr