The USD rebounded in September as risk aversion increased and Corona cases in Europe surged. Uncertainty is likely to dominate at least until the US election. Yet, the fundamental case for more USD weakness remains in place.
Economy and Interest Rates
Global economic activity recovered strongly in the third quarter. Most growth forecast were again revised to the upside but momentum is now fading as the recovery is moving from the re-opening rebound to a second more cyclical phase, which is still marked by significant corporate balance sheet and labor market distortions, while the course of the Corona pandemic remains an uncertainty.
The USD rebound in September was broad-based. Risk-sensitive currencies like the GBP fell the most, but the JPY held up well. Higher risk aversion was negative for Emerging Markets with vulnerable currencies like the TRY falling the most.
Going into more detail: Based on our proprietary analytical framework to take scalable exchange rate positions we are taking a close look on individual currency pairs.