«Improving USD Fundamentals»
Events in the Gulf continue to drive short-term FX movements between de-escalation hopes and renewed tensions. This may go on for a while but fundamentals are changing as well. The US economy is proving more resilient than others, the Fed is….
Economy & Interest Rates
So far, the material impact from the Gulf war is most visible in the Middle East and some emerging economies, notable in Asia. Global business sentiment has held up surprisingly well, while …
FX Markets
The USD DXY gained 1.1% over the last four weeks and is up 2.6% since the start of the Gulf war. The SEK and the CHF lost the most, while the GBP and the JPY held up best. EM FX performance was also negative with the CNH holding up best also compared to major currencies. Speculative positions …
FX Analytics
There have been few position changes over the last five weeks. We kept the Macro positions at neutral given the uncertainties related to the Gulf war. In Business Sentiment, the short EUR position versus the USD increased while the SEK…
