«An Art and not a Science»
The USD fell back amid concerns over Fed credibility and concerted JPY interventions. We still view USD fundamentals as favorable but acknowledge that setback risks have increased. Estimating currency fair-values based on PPP is more of an art than a science but provides …
Economy & Interest Rates
Global economic conditions have improved a bit despite the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf and resulting oil supply shortages as well as growing AI anxieties. Business confidence has held up and consumer confidence has stabilized. The US remains the …
FX Markets
The USD DXY fell 1% over the last month with all major currencies gaining versus the USD except for the CHF. The performance of EM currencies was on balance positive as well but more mixed with the RUB falling nearly 5%. Long USD speculative positions continued to …
FX Analytics
There have been several position changes over the last five weeks. We kept the discretionary Macro positions at neutral given thee range-bound currency outlook with increased volatility risks (see Insight, page 1). All Business Sentiment positions changed except for EURSEK. The overall Business Sentiment position shifted from …
