Currency markets have been relatively stable despite the emergence of several uncertainties and market jitters. Most likely, stress is not yet sufficiently high to move markets, which remain focused on central bank actions. This could change with the unfolding of the US debt-ceiling process. Beyond that, recession is becoming a…
Economy and Interest Rates
The period of positive growth forecast revisions is fading despite broadly stronger data for the first quarter. The recoveries of business sentiment and consumer confidence are also stalling. The banking problems are being contained but the fallout…
FX Markets
The USD range traded in April but not uniformly. EUR, CHF, GBP and SEK appreciated while JPY and commodity currencies depreciated. Among EM currencies, the BRL performed best and the BRL was the biggest loser. Overall speculative positions are…
FX Analytics
There have been several signal changes since the last Monthly which reduced on balance the overall short USD position. Notably, Business Sentiment went from short USD to neutral vs the EUR and the CHF,…