The euro remains in check – Euro bulls are cheered by a possible Fed rate cut, but we don’t think that would solve all the euro’s problems. Growing political uncertainties and an intensifying conflict with Italy could add to the euro’s troubles. Our observation of the development of euro.
The macro perspective
Strong start to the year may not last – The Swiss economy got off to a strong start this year but we think it’s unlikely to maintain this brisk pace for long. It managed to enjoy solid growth until recently, defying the global downtrend, but the latest sentiment data signals a distinct weakening. Our conclusion of the turnaround.
FX market talk
Recessions and the dollar – Markets have quickly shifted lately from expecting the Fed to follow its “dot plots,” which still indicate rising interest rates, to pricing in more rate cuts. Lower bond yields reflect concerns about the next US recession. We think it’s a good moment to look at how the US dollar has performed in the run-up to previous recessions. Our overview.
Download: FX Monthly June 2019