07.03.2024 | Issue #101 | QCAM MONTHLY
«Spring awakening»
The USD continued to rally in the first half of February but has been gradually sliding lower since then. The competing themes are global recovery versus US exceptionalism and a hawkish Fed. There are many other uncertainties that could shape the direction for FX markets but we expect that data releases over the first half of the year will determine which of the two main dynamics will come to dominate…
Economy and Interest Rates
Global growth conditions have improved a bit further with continued US outperformance versus the rest of the world, most notably Europe. The process of disinflation is becoming less even, with more progress in Europe and setbacks in the US. Soft-landing (lower growth and inflation) remains …
FX Markets
The USD DXY rallied in early February but subsequently moved gradually lower. The EUR, the GBP and the SEK performed best versus the USD and the CHF and the JPY underperformed the most. EM currencies …
FX Analytics
There have been several signal changes since last month shifting the overall USD position from a small long to neutral. All discretionary Macro positions remained unchanged but Business Sentiment went long EUR and CHF and neutral GBP versus the USD. On balance,…