QCAM MONTHLY
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07.09.2023 | Issue #95 | QCAM MONTHLY
«China’s long debt-landing»
The USD DXY rallied 5% since the middle of July. Given the health of the US economy versus its major counterparts, we expect further USD upside but with more bumps. The combination of lax fiscal and tight monetary policy is likely to be an undercurrent for the USD for some time. Problems in China are supporting the USD as well. We think China can avoid a hard-landing but faces a prolonged period of debt deflation.
Economy and Interest Rates
Global growth conditions continue to weaken although not rapidly. Business surveys have slipped further and the recovery in consumer confidence has stalled. The US and Japan are outperforming, while China and the Euro-area struggle the most to avoid recession…
FX Markets
The USD rose more than 5% against all other major currencies and nearly 4% versus EM currencies since the middle of July. The CHF and the CAD held up best while SEK, NZD, NOK and AUD underperformed the most. Among EM currencies…
FX Analytics
There have been few signal since changes since the last QCAM MONTHLY and the balance of all positions remained modestly long USD. We kept all discretionary Macro positions unchanged…
China’s long debt-landing
China's long debt-landing - The USD DXY rallied 5% since the middle of July. Given the health of the US economy versus its major counterparts, we expect further USD upside but with more bumps. The combination of lax fiscal and tight monetary policy is likely to be an undercurrent for the USD for some time. Problems in China are supporting the USD as well.
High-Speed Rollercoaster
QCAM MONTHLY August 2023: FX markets started the second half of the year with the same rollercoaster pattern as they finished the first half, only faster. The USD DXY fell 3% in the first half of July and then recovered most losses by the end of the month.
QCAM MONTHLY May 2023 || Debt-ceiling and beyond
Currency markets have been relatively stable despite the emergence of several uncertainties and market jitters. Most likely, stress is not yet sufficiently high to move markets, which remain focused on central bank actions. This could change with the unfolding of the US debt-ceiling process. Beyond that, recession is becoming a...
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QCAM MONTHLY March 2023 || No 2022 déjà-vu
QCAM Monthly March 2023 QCAM Insight The USD [...]
QCAM MONTHLY February 2023 || Don’t expect too much from China
QCAM Monthly February 2023 QCAM Insight The USD [...]
China’s long debt-landing
China's long debt-landing - The USD DXY rallied 5% since the middle of July. Given the health of the US economy versus its major counterparts, we expect further USD upside but with more bumps. The combination of lax fiscal and tight monetary policy is likely to be an undercurrent for the USD for some time. Problems in China are supporting the USD as well.
High-Speed Rollercoaster
QCAM MONTHLY August 2023: FX markets started the second half of the year with the same rollercoaster pattern as they finished the first half, only faster. The USD DXY fell 3% in the first half of July and then recovered most losses by the end of the month.
Half time
QCAM Monthly July 2023: After the strong trends in 2021 and 2022, FX markets were less directional and more dispersed in the first half of 2023. This pattern may well continue in the second half of this year although the underlying drivers are likely to shift. In our view, the dominant theme will...
Shifting tides
QCAM Monthly June 2023: Uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling has been removed. The focus is back to growth, inflation and monetary policy. The USD bear trend is fading with the global recovery theme. However, the situation is more mixed than it was a year ago and the USD is less likely to outperform across the board. The JPY has the best precondition to shine, while the EUR is more likely to struggle and the USD sits somewhere in-between...