05.10.2023 | Issue #96 | QCAM MONTHLY
«What stops the Dollar?»
The USD continued its rally in September and the momentum as well as the support from superior growth and interest rate run-rates point to further USD upside. Rising risk aversion also supports the USD and is unlikely to reverse as abruptly as it did at the end of last year. However, the risk is that the financial tightening becomes…
Economy and Interest Rates
Global growth conditions remain sluggish but have not further deteriorated in September. The US and Japan continue to outperform, while the Euro-area struggle to avoid recession. While the impact of higher interest rates is still unfolding, the renewed increase in energy prices…
FX Markets
The USD continued its rally in September but less evenly with the GBP losing the most and the NZD managing a small gain. Among EM currencies, TRY and ZAR reversed positions from winner to loser respectively. Overall, …
FX Analytics
There have been few signal changes since the last QCAM MONTHLY and the balance of all positions remained modestly long USD. All discretionary Macro and Business Sentiment positions were unchanged. Only the Macro carry model…