News & Publications
Something has to give
Powerful headwinds stalled the USD’s rally in October. Cross currents are likely to keep FX markets range-bound in the near term, but with a USD-bullish bias. The tides are set to change if US economic outperformance fades next year, the global economy starts to re-accelerate and the BoJ finally catches up with reality.
What stops the Dollar?
The USD continued its rally in September and the momentum as well as the support from superior growth and interest rate run-rates point to further USD upside. Rising risk aversion also supports the USD and is unlikely to reverse as abruptly as it did at the end of last year. However, the risk is that the financial tightening becomes....
China’s long debt-landing
China's long debt-landing - The USD DXY rallied 5% since the middle of July. Given the health of the US economy versus its major counterparts, we expect further USD upside but with more bumps. The combination of lax fiscal and tight monetary policy is likely to be an undercurrent for the USD for some time. Problems in China are supporting the USD as well.
High-Speed Rollercoaster
QCAM Monthly August 2023: FX markets started the second half of the year with the same rollercoaster pattern as they finished the first half, only faster. The USD DXY fell 3% in the first half of July and then recovered most losses by the end of the month.
Half time
QCAM Monthly July 2023: After the strong trends in 2021 and 2022, FX markets were less directional and more dispersed in the first half of 2023. This pattern may well continue in the second half of this year although the underlying drivers are likely to shift. In our view, the dominant theme will...
Shifting tides
QCAM Monthly June 2023: Uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling has been removed. The focus is back to growth, inflation and monetary policy. The USD bear trend is fading with the global recovery theme. However, the situation is more mixed than it was a year ago and the USD is less likely to outperform across the board. The JPY has the best precondition to shine, while the EUR is more likely to struggle and the USD sits somewhere in-between...
QCAM Monthly January 2021 – Reflation and its risks
The deployment of Corona vaccines is widely expected to reflate the global economy in 2021. The big risk is that the vaccination campaign disappoints.
QCAM Monthly December 2020 >> Taking a first peek at 2021
The business cycle is an important exchange rate driver. At QCAM we have been using business surveys for many years to systematically capture the link between business cycles and exchange rate trends. This rule-based approach is now available as a total return alpha strategy via a UBS certificate. QCAM FX BIAS is diversified over 8 major currencies and delivers attractive returns at moderate volatility
QCAM Monthly November 2020 >> What to make of it?
QCAM Insight The outcome of the US election was [...]
QCAM Monthly October 2020 >> Correction yet no trend change
The USD rebounded in September as risk aversion increased and Corona cases in Europe surged. Uncertainty is likely to dominate at least until the US election. Yet, the fundamental case for more USD weakness remains in place.
QCAM Monthly September 2020 >> Abe’s legacy and the Yen
Shinzo Abe leaves a mixed legacy. He broke the deflationary spiral, but failed to complete Japan's reflation and made debt-monetization an accepted policy tool. The JPY gradually appreciated in recent years and we believe will slowly strengthen further because the rest of the developed world is becoming more like Japan yet the JPY remains a net-savings and safe-haven currency.
QCAM Monthly August 2020 >> Economic sentiment speaks
After plunging at the beginning of the Corona crisis, economic sentiment has recovered across the board. Still, there are differences which can be used systematically in currency markets.
